ssi forex Analytical Trader

What are your expectations when it comes to short term and long term price development, do you see a XMas rally incoming?
Think the chances are quite good and the reason would be hunt for liquidity by the big boys. Let me explain a bit:
I personally think that big money has taken over and it is no longer about technology when it comes to BTC. Since the introduction of BTC futures things have changed and it is now just a casino. Trading index and commodity futures and price movements there are optimized to "use" retail traders for liquidity so i would expect the same is now the case for BTC.
Since BTC trading is far less regulated and some players can even move the markets by themselves or Tether, betting on futures could be used as amplifier. Just a few days ago the sudden spike wiped out 60M in short positions on the futures for example. That is nice pocket money for a whale. Now as discussed it is all about the liquidity in trading, since paper gains on any assets only become real once they are actually realized.
We have seen a dramatic raise to ATH. After that a drop to levels, where it would be barely profitable to keep infrastructure running. After that a raise over 10k, which created another wave of inflow of liquidity due to FOMO. This was a great opportunity to cash out for the big boys, they love to sell into all the FOMO buying of small investors (not just BTC). Now how will it continue ? What would be the next opportunity to generate liquidity to cash out?
We have dropped significantly from the last spike already. But XMas is at the doorstep and that could also attract some precious liquidity, especially if price would raise again over important levels like 10k and BTC would therefore be in the mainstream news....
​
If you are looking for more background info about liquidity and big money this is a really good video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5UpXhYXnAM
You could also read about the IG client sentiment indicator and price development (on USD/AUD f.e. it is nicely visible)...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/2019/10/22/AUDUSD-201910221423.html
My advice would be to make sure you are green, when all the dust settles. Diversify your investments and remember to play like the big boys: only realized profits are "real". Buy low sell high, do not HODL everything, because in this game someone will hold the bag in the end and it is usually the small investor. Times have changed, it is no longer about technology.

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Hi everyone! Thanks for joining. This sub is for active traders of crypto and stocks, those looking to make a fat YUGE profit. While all are welcome, we are more geared for traders with a serious mindset. Post your ideas for today here.
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FINVIZ HEATMAP - FINVIZ FUTURES - FOREX - NEWS FEED
FEB 28th WED Fear & Greed Index
Economic Calendar: Results & More

Time	Release	For	Actual	Expected	Prior
7:00:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Index	24-Feb	2.70%	NA	-6.60%
8:30:00 AM	Q4 GDP - Second Estimate	Q4	2.50%	2.50%	2.60%
8:30:00 AM	Q4 GDP Deflator - Second Estimate	Q4	0.02	2.40%	2.40%
9:45:00 AM	Chicago PMI	Feb	-	65.50	64.50
10:00:00 AM	Pending Home Sales	Jan	-	0.50%	0.40%
10:30:00 AM	Crude Inventories	43,155.00	-	NA	NA

Ex-Dividend: Calendar

Ex- Div	Company	Amt	Yield
ABAX	Abaxis Rg	0.16	0.01
ACCO	ACCO Brands Rg	0.06	0.02
ACNB	ACNB Rg	0.20	0.03
AROW	Arrow Financial Rg	0.25	0.00
ASB	Assd Banc-Corp Rg	0.15	0.02
ASH	Ashland Global H Rg	0.23	0.02
BCC	Boise Cascade Rg	0.07	0.00
BKMU	Bank Mutual Rg	0.15	0.00
BLL	Ball Rg	0.10	0.01
BWA	BorgWarner Rg	0.17	0.01
CADE	CADENCE BANCRP-A RG	0.13	0.02
CATY	Cathay Genl Banc Rg	0.24	0.02
CCNE	CNB Finl Rg	0.17	0.02
CDK	CDK Global Rg	0.15	0.01
CMP	Compass Minerals Rg	0.72	0.05
CSS	CSS Ind Inc Rg	0.20	0.04
CSX	CSX Rg	0.22	0.01
CTB	Cooper Tire&Rubb Rg	0.11	0.01
CTWS	Connecticut Wtr Rg	0.30	0.02
CUB	Cubic Corp Rg	0.14	0.00
CXP	Columbia Prop RE Rg	0.20	0.04
EML	The Eastern Co Rg	0.11	0.02
FF	FutureFuel Rg	0.06	0.21
FFBC	First Finl Banco Rg	0.19	0.02
FFKT	Farmers Cap Bank Rg	0.13	0.01
FLR	Fluor Rg	0.21	0.01
GPI	Group I Automoti Rg	0.26	0.01
GRA	W R Grace Rg	0.24	0.01
GS	Goldman Sachs Gr Rg	0.75	0.02
HAYN	Haynes Intl Rg	0.22	0.02
HCA	HCA Hldgs Rg	0.35	0.01
HY	Hyster-Yale Materials Handling	0.30	0.02
IBKR	Interactive Br Rg-A	0.10	0.01
IPG	Interpublic Grou Rg	0.21	0.03
JKHY	Jack Henry & Ass Rg	0.37	0.01
JNPR	Juniper Networks Rg	0.18	0.02
KNX	Knight-Swft Trn - Registered -A-	0.06	0.00
LCNB	LCNB Rg	0.16	0.03
LLL	L3 Technologies - Registered	0.80	0.00
LMT	Lockheed Martin Rg	2.00	0.02
MCD	McDonald's	1.01	0.02
MCK	Mckesson Rg	0.34	0.01
MGEE	MGE Energy Rg	0.32	0.02
MOFG	MidWestOne Finl Rg	0.20	0.02
MOS	Mosaic Rg	0.03	0.02
MXIM	Maxim Integr Pro Rg	0.42	0.02
NBTB	NBT Bancorp Rg	0.23	0.03
NC	Nacco Inds-A	0.17	0.03
NNI	NELNET-A	0.16	0.01
NPK	Nat.Presto Ind. Rg	6.00	0.05
NYLD	NRG Yield Rg-C	0.30	0.13
O	Realty Income RE Rg	0.22	0.05
ONB	Old Natl Bancorp Rg	0.13	0.03
PEI	Pennsyl REIT-SBI Rg	0.21	0.13
PII	Polaris Inds Rg	0.60	0.02
PRGS	Progress Softwar Rg	0.14	0.01
SAFT	Safety Ins Grp Rg	0.80	0.04
SF	Stifel Financial Rg	0.12	0.00
SSNC	SS&C Tech Hldgs Rg	0.07	0.01

Earnings Reports: Morningstar Earnings Calendar & Results

Company	Release	Est. EPS	Company	Release	Est. EPS
3D Systems (DDD)	Morning	0.01	Itau Corpbanca (ITCB)	Afternoon	N/A
Aegion (AEGN)	Afternoon	0.26	JD.Com (JD)	N/A	0.07
Amyris (AMRS)	Afternoon	0.12	KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF)	Afternoon	0.34
Analog Devices (ADI)	Morning	1.29	KVH Industries (KVHI)	Morning	0.11
Ashford Hospitality Prime (AHP)	Afternoon	-0.08	L Brands (LB)	Afternoon	2.04
Autodesk (ADSK)	Afternoon	-0.12	La Quinta (LQ)	Afternoon	-0.01
CafePress (PRSS)	Afternoon	0.01	LHC Group (LHCG)	Morning	0.61
Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST)	Morning	0.02	Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)	Morning	0.31
Chico's FAS (CHS)	Morning	0.09	Lindblad Expeditions (LIND)	Morning	-0.07
Chimerix (CMRX)	Morning	-0.49	LivaNova (LIVN)	Morning	0.77
Chinanet Online (CNET)	Morning	N/A	Lowe's Companies (LOW)	Morning	0.87
CIRCOR International (CIR)	Morning	0.48	Magic Software Enterprises (MGIC)	Morning	0.13
City Office REIT (CIO)	Morning	-0.09	Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	Afternoon	0.31
Clean Harbors (CLH)	Morning	0.07	Merit Medical Systems (MMSI)	Afternoon	0.32
Compass Diversified (CODI)	Afternoon	0.44	Monster Beverage (MNST)	Afternoon	0.37
Crocs (CROX)	Morning	-0.39	Movado Group (MOV)	Morning	0.26
CTI BioPharma (CTIC)	Afternoon	-0.30	Mylan (MYL)	Morning	1.42
Daqo New Energy (DQ)	Morning	2.39	New Media Investment Group (NEWM)	Morning	0.32
DASAN Zhone Solutions (DZSI)	Afternoon	0.13	New Mountain Finance (NMFC)	Afternoon	0.34
Donaldson (DCI)	Morning	N/A	New York REIT (NYRT)	Morning	N/A
Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN)	Morning	0.04	Northwest Pipe (NWPX)	Afternoon	-0.12
Dorchester Minerals (DMLP)	N/A	N/A	Novanta (NOVT)	Morning	0.41
Ducommun (DCO)	Morning	-0.34	Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)	Afternoon	-0.56
Dycom Industries (DY)	Morning	0.35	Ocwen Financial (OCN)	Morning	-0.23
E. W. Scripps (SSP)	Morning	0.05	Office Depot (ODP)	Morning	0.07
Eclipse Resources (ECR)	Afternoon	-0.02	Olympic Steel (ZEUS)	Morning	0.08
Edge Therapeutics (EDGE)	N/A	-0.44	OvaScience (OVAS)	Afternoon	-0.28
Entravision Communication (EVC)	Afternoon	0.01	Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)	Afternoon	-0.04
EP Energy (EPE)	Afternoon	-0.12	Pengrowth Energy (PGH)	Afternoon	N/A
EPR Properties (EPR)	Afternoon	0.95	Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)	Morning	0.27
Evogene (EVGN)	Morning	-0.21	QEP Resources (QEP)	Afternoon	-0.07
Federal Signal (FSS)	Morning	0.20	Quaker Chemical (KWR)	Afternoon	1.29
Ferro (FOE)	Afternoon	0.28	Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS)	Afternoon	-0.15
FGL (FG)	Afternoon	0.13	RMG Networks (RMGN)	Morning	-0.15
Frontline (FRO)	Afternoon	-0.08	Rowan Companies (RDC)	Morning	-0.26
Fulgent Genetics (FLGT)	Afternoon	-0.03	salesforce.com (CRM)	Afternoon	0.33
Getty Realty (GTY)	Afternoon	0.29	Scientific Games (SGMS)	Afternoon	-0.23
Glaukos (GKOS)	Afternoon	0.01	SeaSpine (SPNE)	Afternoon	-0.53
Golar LNG (GLNG)	Morning	-0.30	Sempra Energy (SRE)	N/A	1.43
Golar LNG Partners (GMLP)	Morning	0.25	Sequential Brands Group (SQBG)	Morning	0.16
Gramercy Property Trust (GPT)	Afternoon	0.52	SilverBow Resources (SBOW)	Afternoon	1.50
Greif (GEF)	Afternoon	0.68	Snyder's-Lance (LNCE)	Morning	0.40
Greif (GEF.B)	Afternoon	N/A	St. Joe (JOE)	Afternoon	N/A
Guidewire Software (GWRE)	Afternoon	0.19	STAAR Surgical (STAA)	Afternoon	0.03
Habit Restaurants (HABT)	Afternoon	-0.02	Stage Stores (SSI)	Morning	N/A
Halcon Resources (HK)	Afternoon	-0.04	Stoneridge (SRI)	Afternoon	0.37
Harmonic (HLIT)	Afternoon	-0.04	Stratasys (SSYS)	Morning	0.15
Hertz Global (HRI)	Morning	0.27	Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX)	Afternoon	-0.76
Heska (HSKA)	Morning	0.60	Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE)	Afternoon	0.68
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)	Afternoon	0.51	TJX Companies (TJX)	Morning	1.27
Hoegh LNG Partners (HMLP)	Morning	0.34	TravelCenters of America (TA)	Morning	-0.05
Horizon Pharma (HZNP)	Morning	0.22	Triangle Capital (TCAP)	Afternoon	0.33
Hostess Brands (TWNK)	Afternoon	0.15	UFP Technologies (UFPT)	N/A	0.23
Hudson Global (HSON)	N/A	N/A	Univar (UNVR)	Morning	0.25
I.D. Systems (IDSY)	Afternoon	0.03	Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl (VRX)	Morning	0.96
ILG (ILG)	Afternoon	0.26	WhiteHorse Finance (WHF)	Morning	0.33
Installed Building Products (IBP)	Morning	0.60	Worldpay (WP)	Morning	0.95
Interlink Electronics (LINK)	N/A	N/A	Xerium Technologies (XRM)	Afternoon	0.08

PRE-MARKET MOVERS: $FTR $BHP $BBL $RIO $LOW $CELG $EOG $GM $GRFS $GOLD $VRX $AU $PZZA $HTZ $VXX $CROX $ELF $FTR
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^{Disclaimer: The opinions in this thread and forum are solely the opinions of the individual account holders and contributors. The info should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular security. All investments entail risks. As with most things in life, caveat emptor.}

FXCM’s Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) focuses on buyers and sellers, comparing how many are active in the market and producing a ratio to indicate how traders are behaving in relation to a particular currency pair. A positive SSI ratio indicates more buyers are in the market than sellers, while a negative SSI ratio indicates that more sellers are in the market. FXCM’s sentiment data was designed around this index, providing 12 sentiment measurements per minute (click here for an overview of each measurement.)
The sample data is stored in a GNU compressed zip file on FXCM’s GitHub as https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/{instrument}.csv.gz. To download the file, we’ll use this URL, but change {instrument} to the instrument of our choice. For this example we’ll use EUUSD price.

import datetime import pandas as pd url = 'https://sampledata.fxcorporate.com/sentiment/EURUSD.csv.gz' data = pd.read_csv(url, compression='gzip', index_col='DateTime', parse_dates=True) """Convert data into GMT to match the price data we will download later""" import pytz data = data.tz_localize(pytz.timezone('US/Eastern')) data = data.tz_convert(pytz.timezone('GMT')) """Use pivot method to pivot Name rows into columns""" sentiment_pvt = data.tz_localize(None).pivot(columns='Name', values='Value') 

Now that we have downloaded sentiment data, it would be helpful to have the price data for the same instrument over the same period for analysis. Note the sentiment data is in 1-minute increments, so I will need to pull 1-minute EURUSD candles. We could pull this data into a DataFrame quickly and easily using fxcmpy, however the limit of the number of candles we can pull using fxcmpy is 10,000, which is fewer than the number of 1-minute candles in January 2018. Instead, we can download the candles in 1-week packages from FXCM’s GitHub and create a loop to compile them into a DataFrame. This sounds like a lot of work, but really it’s only a few lines of code. Similarly to the sentiment data, historical candle data is stored in GNU zip files which can be called by their URL.

url = 'https://candledata.fxcorporate.com/' periodicity='m1' ##periodicity, can be m1, H1, D1 url_suffix = '.csv.gz' symbol = 'EURUSD' start_dt = datetime.date(2018,1,2)##select start date end_dt = datetime.date(2018,2,1)##select end date start_wk = start_dt.isocalendar()[1] end_wk = end_dt.isocalendar()[1] year = str(start_dt.isocalendar()[0]) data=pd.DataFrame() for i in range(start_wk, end_wk+1): url_data = url + periodicity + '/' + symbol + '/' + year + '/' + str(i) + url_suffix print(url_data) tempdata = pd.read_csv(url_data, compression='gzip', index_col='DateTime', parse_dates=True) data=pd.concat([data, tempdata]) """Combine price and sentiment data""" frames = data['AskClose'], sentiment_pvt.tz_localize(None) combineddf = pd.concat(frames, axis=1, join_axes=[sentiment_pvt.tz_localize(None).index], ignore_index=False).dropna() combineddf 

At this point you can begin your exploratory data analysis. We started by viewing the descriptive statistics of the data, creating a heatmap of the correlation matrix, and plotting a histogram of the data to view its distribution. View this articleto see our sample code and the results.

UPDATE: RESULTS!!!
Had some great trade ideas, all of them - thanks to everyone who participated!
Here are the trades, summarized, and not in order of competition ranking. Some of them I'm not sure if they were triggered, so please do update your post or add a new comment to let me know.
(Trades in brackets are still open. We'll have a vote on the next thread as to what to do with these)
Trades in italics: I'm not sure whether they were triggered or not. Let me know

Trader	Day	Pair	Buy/Sell	Entry	Stop	Target	Result	R:R	P/L	Comment
Wyatt2000	Wed/Thurs	USD/CAD	Sell	1.10799	1.12067	1.097	Win	1:0.9	+109
phatey	Thurs/Fri	USD/CHF	Sell	0.88825	0.8915	0.88	Win	1:2.6	+80
phatey	Thurs	GBP/JPY	Buy	171.27	(170.90)	172	Win	1:2	+73	Manually reversed short
Ormin	Mon/Tues	USD/CHF	Sell	0.8854	0.8876	0.878	Loss	1:3.4	-30
phatey	Mon/Tues	GBP/JPY	Sell	171.22	171.5	168.5	Loss	1:9	-10	Manually closed
Blades1	Tues/Wed	NZD/USD	Sell	0.8392	0.843	0.83	Loss	1:3.5	-38
NormanConquest	Mon	AUD/CAD	Sell	0.993	1.0075	0.86	Loss	1:3.25	-145	Fuck this thing
papagoy	Fri	EUNZD	Buy	1.634	1.615	1.65	(Win)	1:0.8	(+68)
NormanConquest	Mon	EUCHF	Buy	1.2100	1.193	1.24	(Win)	1:2	(+77)
FXReddit	Mon/Tues	NZD/CAD	Sell	0.93	0.94	0.9015	(Loss)	1:2.8	(-78)
FXReddit	Mon	USD/JPY	Buy	100.75	100.4	105	Not triggered	1:14	N/A
phatey	Thurs/Fri	EUUSD	Buy	1.3715	1.368	1.383	Not triggered?	1:4	N/A?

Aaaand the winner is:
Phatey with this beautifully simple USD/CHF short: http://i.imgur.com/HDvmumb.png
Congratulations on winning the first /forex paper trading competition! I really like this trade because it was just so obvious, clean and textbook, and in the face of all the noise out there about how USD/CHF was on its way to the moon.
There were lots of other good contenders. In second place for sure was Wyat2000's USD/CAD short. The only reason I decided that this didn't win was because phatey's trade had a much better risk/reward ratio - other than that they were both equally good, and equally well executed.
I didn't include phatey's EUUSD long, which would have been even better, but I don't believe it was triggered?
Two interesting things:

• Most of the losing trades, and none of the winning ones (except my still-open EUCHF long), were against the direction of the prevailing trend and the implications of sentiment readings/positioning (Eg. SSI, COT)
• Ormin also had a sell USD/CHF trade. According to his original stops he was taken out, but Ormin if you managed to stay in it, you're up there with the winners mate. If not, it just goes to show how easy it is to be right at the wrong time.

I'll leave correspondence open for bitchin' and whinin' until the end of the day, so if you have any complaints or suggestions we can pretend that this is a democracy for a bit. Otherwise the prize will be awarded this evening!
Someone suggested we make this a thing, so this is where you post your hottest trade ideas for the week. Smoke 'em if you got 'em, and let's try liven this place up a little.
*** To make it a little interesting, I will award the week's "best trade" with a month of reddit gold! ***
RULES:

1. Charts are preferable, but if you don't post a chart then please be detailed about entry level, stops and limits, means of execution, and any other conditions. Vague buy or sell calls won't be considered for the competition - you must include some reasoning behind the trade.
2. In order to be eligible to win, you MUST adhere to Rule #1 and you MUST post an update on when and how you managed and closed your trade (including partial exits, trailing your stop, adding on, etc.) - I'm hoping these threads will be a good way for newbies to learn, and for the rest of us to pick up a few tricks.
3. The "Best Trade" will be judged by me, but I'll take anyone's thoughts into consideration. It will be based mostly on % change in price during the time the trade was open, but there may be arbitrary style points awarded. Generally it will be on how technically "good" the trade is, and hopefully this will generate some debate.
4. Risk management and strategic execution will also factor into it, mostly to try to exclude luck to some degree - but also to encourage and promote good trading habits.
5. You can post trades at any time from now until Friday's close, but no trades after the fact, obviously.
6. Trades that are still open by Friday's close will be considered as closed at that point (unless anyone has a better idea of how to handle this?)
7. EDIT: Forgot to mention that you can post as many different trades as you like, but please do them each in a separate comment to make it easier to track.

I'll post mine as soon as TradingStation is back up tomorrow, but in the meantime, let's hear what you got!

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 11%.

The Yen declined against the US Dollar following poor Japanese trade balance figures January's trade balance was - ¥1086.9b vs -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b previously February's FOMC minutes serve as top event risk for USD/JPY in the week ahead. See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.
The Japanese Yen fell against the US Dollar as trade balance figures missed expectations.
The data showed the nation's trade balance for January was - ¥1086.9b versus -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b recorded in December.
While there was an initial USD/JPY climb, the excitement seemed to dwindle rather swiftly as these figures have limited implications for BOJ monetary policy.
With a rather quiet week ahead, the release of February's FOMC meeting minutes will serve as top event risk for the USD/JPY pair.
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